The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) has adjusted its 2026 home sales forecast downwards for the third time this year, as September data indicates a decline in sales nationwide. Initially anticipating a slight increase in home sales for 2026, CREA now projects a 5.2% decrease in home transactions compared to the previous year. This revision follows similar adjustments made in April and July.
The surge in oil prices since spring has led to higher bond yields, impacting fixed mortgage rates, according to CREA. While there was a slight uptick in monthly activity over the summer, CREA’s senior economist Shaun Cathcart cites rising oil prices and concerns about potential interest rate hikes by the Bank of Canada to combat inflation as factors likely to deter more prospective homebuyers in the remaining months of the year.
“We’ve been experiencing this roller-coaster ride for two years now,” remarked Cathcart, alluding to challenges posed by U.S. tariffs and escalating lending rates. He anticipates increased uncertainty may prompt many individuals to delay entering the market this fall.
Royal LePage, a real estate firm, echoes similar sentiments from potential homebuyers, noting a softer fall housing market than expected due to global uncertainties. President and CEO Phil Soper highlights that the unpredictable language from Washington is influencing people’s reluctance to make significant financial decisions like home purchases.
In September, home sales saw a decline of 2.3% compared to August and a 7.7% drop from the same month last year, reflecting the impact of these economic factors. Additionally, newly listed properties decreased by 1.8% on a monthly basis, with new supply trends showing a decline since September 2025.
The average national home price stood at $666,538, marking a 1.6% decrease from the previous year. While markets in Vancouver and Toronto exhibited weakness in September, regions such as the Prairies, Quebec, and the East Coast, previously robust, are also witnessing a cooling trend.
Despite the downward revision in the current forecast, CREA anticipates a rebound in home sales next year. With an optimistic scenario of limited rate adjustments by the Bank of Canada and increased borrower confidence in lending rates, CREA foresees a 4.4% rise in home sales for 2027.
